// Gossip, News, Op-ed, Poker Tournaments

1. Nate Silver Wsop 2019
2. Nate Silver Poker 2019 Game
3. Nate Silver Poker 2019 Results
4. Nate Silver Poker 2019 Winner
5. Nate Silver Poker 2019 Schedule

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 27, 2019. Tweeted Silver: “It really amazing how many Libs can’t even permit Trump to have.one good day. (nobody will remember this stuff by Tuesday. However, his biggest score in the 2019 WSOP came when he finished runner-up in WSOP Event 83: $100,000 No-Limit Hold'em High Roller for $1,725,838, counting 630.2 points out of his total 3,861.78. Nate Silver (1978- ), an American statistician and writer, is the top polling expert and political forecaster at the New York Times. In 2008 he got 49 of 50 states right in the presidential election and got all 35 Senate races right. In 2010 he got 34 of 37 Senate races right and 36 of 37 governor races. He said Republicans would gain 55 seats. Nate Silver’s pollster ratings equally praise two outlets producing what sure look like wildly varying takes on how 2020 is shaping up. — Nate Cohn (@NateCohn) November 5, 2019.

The 2019 World Series of Poker is over. The same night that Hossein Ensan won the Main Event, Carl Shaw won the 89th and final event of the Series, $5,000 No-Limit Hold’em. There were 89 winners at the World Series of Poker (91 if you count the trio that won the Tag Team event separately), but there were a hundred thousand-something people who did not win tournaments. As the Main Event was getting underway, famed statistician, founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, and once avid poker player Nate Silver* tweeted a list of the ten “major causes of death in a poker tournament,” a clever list that spurred some fun conversation.

He described the list as not specifically having to do with a player’s bust-out hand, but rather the hand or condition any time in a tournament “that most contributes to your demise.” Here is Silver’s list:

a. Lose a big flip (i.e. AK vs JJ)
b. Get the money in as a favorite but get sucked out on
c. Get coolered (run your strong hand into an even stronger hand)
d. Make a hero call but the opponent has it
e. Make a big naked bluff that doesn’t work
f. Make a big semi-bluff that doesn’t get there
g. Call with a draw because of pot odds and don’t get there
h. Get pot-stuck over multiple streets (either as bettor or caller) with a medium-strength hand
i. Be card dead / get blinded down
j. Make a big fold to cripple your stack and the lose the rest by one of the other methods

It is possible to come up with additions to the list, but they are almost always going to be version of one of the above or a combination of more than one of the above.

Where the Final Hand of the 2019 WSOP Main Event Fits In

Nate Silver at the WPT Seminole Hard Rock Poker Showdown in April 2019
Photo credit: WPT via flickr

If we go back to the final hand of the 2019 WSOP Main Event, Dario Sammartino’s tournament death, in this case his final hand, is option (f) from Nate Silver’s list, “Make a big semi-bluff that doesn’t get there.”

Sammartino had 8-4 of spades and the board read T-6-2-9 with two spades when he made his all-in move. He didn’t have made hand, but instead was on a semi-bluff. Even if he was behind (which he most certainly was, as Ensan had pocket Kings), he still had plenty of flush and straight outs to win the hand; Sammartino had about a one in four shot.

One could also make the argument that the moment was partially point (h), “Get pot-stuck over multiple streets (either as bettor or caller) with a medium-strength hand,” though Sammartino still would have had about 40 big blinds if he did not continue with the hand and a semi-bluff really isn’t a “medium-strength hand.”

Sammartino got into the situation he was in about 80 hands earlier, as he was either close or leading for a while heads-up before Ensan pulled away. It is hard to pinpoint a “cause of death” if looking at it from that perspective.

Pick Your Poison

After his top ten list, Silver followed up with the question, “Also, which is the “best” way to lose? (i.e. the one you feel least tilted about afterward). Which is the worst way?”

That elicited a boatload of responses and the interesting thing is that many of them were polar opposites of each other. For instance, @JonLawson32 said, “Getting coolered always pisses me off,” but @peterthomasgct went with, “KK vs AA preflop is probably ‘best’”

Here is another conflicting pair:

“Worst way is being a 95% favorite when money is in and then getting runner-runnered” (@tafkokints)
“Sucked out on is the ‘best’ way to lose.” (@greggentry1)

A lot of people said that they can deal with making the right move but having a bad result. I suppose I can see that, but for me, personally, it’s nauseating to get it in with the best hand only for my opponent to hit a miracle river. I suppose later I can feel good about how I played, but it’s extremely painful in the moment and I end up playing the “what if” scenarios in my head for quite some time.

I hate getting coolered, too. I know many poker players are comfortable knowing that getting it all in with, say, Kings versus Aces pre-flop is nearly unavoidable, but I when that situation would happen, I would always think to myself that I should have been able to see it coming and fold. It’s so easy to convince oneself that your opponent is raising and re-raising pre-flop with Queens when it should be so obvious that he or she has Aces.

Beyond the shock and vomit-inducing rage that getting two-outed or similarly sucked out on causes, for me the worst is probably just going card dead and/or never hitting flops. You slowly fade away in the tournament and just don’t end up having any fun. I feel like there was nothing I could do, while at the same time kicking myself for not reading my opponents well, making some moves, and creating my own luck.

On the flip side, if someone just outplays me, like my 10-year old did the other night, I can tip my cap, sleep fine at night, and wake up determined to be better.

*For all I know, he is still an avid poker player, but he seems extremely busy with other things nowadays.

Lead photo credit: WSOP Facebook page

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SPORTS BETTING GUIDE

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 16: Blinds 3,000/5,000/5,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 8

After 16 levels of play, Day 1 of Event 11: $1,090 Eight Max NLH is in the books with 8 players remaining. This event attracted 111 competitors creating a prize pool of $107,670.

Leading the way going into the final day is Rob Calabrese with a stack of 523,000. Calabrese got 6th in the first event of the series, Event#1: $600 No-Limit Hol’dem Deepstack for $66,822, the first five-figure score of his resume. He will be trying to take home the trophy this time.

Calabrese is followed by Charles Furey with 414,000. Furey is a familiar face in the poker world with $479,200 in total earnings. He will be looking to get his first Borgata trophy.

Mike Haberman sits in third with 323,500. Haberman has made multiple final tables and already has a victory at Borgata. He will be going for another one.

Ryan Dodd (287,500), Michael Dichiaro (220,000), Robin James (217,000), Dawn Wilensky (145,000) and Patrick Chan (92,500) are the other five players still in contention. Wilensky has multiple wins on her resume including a victory at the Borgata. She took down Event #7:$230 No-Limit Hold’em Ladies Event of the 2018 Borgata Spring Poker Open and will be trying to book another win.

The remaining eight players are all guaranteed $3,412 but they will all have their eyes on the first-place prize of $29,436 and the Borgata trophy. They will return to the felt on Saturday July 20 at noon local time to continue to battle it out until a winner is crowned.

Action will resume at Level 17 with blinds of 3,000/6,000 with a 6,000 ante.

Final Table Seat Draw and Chip Counts:

Seat 1: Ryan Dodd – 287,500
Seat 2: Dawn Wilensky – 145,000
Seat 3:Patrick Chan – 92,500
Seat 4: Mike Haberman – 323,500
Seat 5: Rob Calabrese – 523,000
Seat 6: Michael Dichiaro – 220,000
Seat 7: Charles Furey – 414,000
Seat 8: Robin James – 217,000

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 16: Blinds 3,000/5,000/5,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 8

Dawn Wilensky raised to 18,000 from the hijack and Michael Dichiaro three-bet jammed for 107,500 from the big blind. Wilensky made the call.

Michael Dichiaro:
Dawn Wilensky:

The flop came giving Wilensky a gutshot and a flush draw, but the turn and river completed the board and Dichiaro doubled up.

Michael Dichiaro – 228,000
Dawn Wilensky – 100,000

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 16: Blinds 3,000/5,000/5,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 8

Rob Calabrese limped from middle position and Charles Furey raised to 16,000 from the cutoff. Robin James called on the button and Calabrese folded.

The flop fell and Furey checked. James bet 13,000 and Furey check-called. The turn was the and both players checked it to the river. Furey fired 38,000 and James moved all in. Furey snap-called with his last 185,000. James turned over for a flush but that wasn’t good enough as Furey revealed for a higher flush to double up.

Robin James – 175,000
Charles Furey – 441,000

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 16: Blinds 3,000/5,000/5,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 8

Arthur Schiavo limped under the gun and Mike Haberman raised to 11,000 from the hijack. Robin James called from the big blind and Schiavo added the remainder to call as well.

The flop fell and James checked. Schiavo moved all in for 118,500 and Haberman let it go but James took a minute of reflection, then made the call.

Arthur Schiavo:
Robin James:

Schiavo had flopped an open-ended straight draw but James had flopped top pair. The turn and river completed the board and James took down the pot, eliminating Schiavo in 9th place for $2,944.

Robin James – 400,000
Arthur Schiavo – Eliminated

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 15: Blinds 2,000/4,000/4,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 9

Mike Haberman raised to 9,000 from middle position and Michael Dichiaro three-bet shoved for 25,000 from the cutoff. Arthur Schiavo called from the big blind and Haberman reshoved for about 315,000. Schiavo let it go.

Michael Dichiaro;
Mike Haberman:

The board ran and Dichiaro tripled up with kings and queens.

Michael Dicharo – 85,000
Mike Haberman – 315,000

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 15: Blinds 2,000/4,000/4,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 9

Ryan Dodd raised to 8,000 from middle position and Michael Dichiaro called from the small blind along with Charles Furey in the big blind.

The dealer spread a flop of and action checked to Dodd who fired 15,000. Dichiaro called and Furey moved all in for 68,000. Dodd reshoved and Dichiaro folded.

Charles Furey:
Ryan Dodd:

The turn and river filled up the board and Furey doubled up with kings and queens.

Charles Furey – 180,000
Ryan Dodd – 280,000

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 15: Blinds 2,000/4,000/4,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 9

Seat 1: Ryan Dodd – 270,000
Seat 2: Dawn Wilensky – 240,000
Seat 3:Patrick Chan – 135,000
Seat 4: Mike Haberman – 400,000
Seat 5: Rob Calabrese – 490,000
Seat 6: Michael Dichiaro – 60,000
Seat 7: Charles Furey – 80,000
Seat 8: Robin James – 310,000
Seat 9: Arthur Schiavo – 140,000

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 14: Blinds 1,500/3,000/3,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 9

Rob Calabrese limped under the gun and Erica Tavss three-bet shoved for about 58,000 from middle position. Alex Feiner reshoved from the big blind for about 81,000 and Calabrese made the call.

Erica Tavss:
Alex Feiner:
Rob Calabrese:

Nate Silver Poker 2019 Game

Tavss hit a favorable flop of but the turn and river completed the board and Calabrese rivered a set of threes to scoop the pot, sending both Tavss and Feiner to the rail.

Rob Calabrese – 520,000
Erica Tavss – Eliminated
Alex Feiner – Eliminated

Alex Feiner, Eliminated

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 14: Blinds 1,500/3,000/3,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 12

Charles Furey – 125,000
Alex Feiner – 90,000
Rob Calabrese – 475,000
Erica Tavss – 35,000
Ryan Dodd – 123,000
Dawn Wilensky – 180,000
Robin James – 250,000
Jon Gottlieb – 130,000
Michael Dichiaro – 70,000
Patrick Chan – 70,000
Mike Haberman – 360,000
Arthur Schiavo – 210,000

$1,000+$90 Eight Max NLH
$100,000 Guaranteed
Structure Sheet Payouts

Level 14: Blinds 1,500/3,000/3,000 BB Ante
Total Entries: 111
Players Remaining: 13

Dawn Wilensky raised to 8,000 from middle position and Nate Silver called from the cutoff. Rob Calabrese three-bet to 30,000 from the big blind and Wilensky and Silver stuck around with a call.

The flop came and Calabrese fired 100,000. Wilensky folded and Silver moved all in. Calabrese made the call and the players tabled their cards.

Nate Silver Poker 2019 Results

Nate Silver:
Rob Calabrese:

Nate Silver Poker 2019 Winner

Calabrese had ace-king and Silver had flopped a flush draw.The turn and bricked for Silver and he was sent to the rail in 14th place for $2,521.

Nate Silver Poker 2019 Schedule

Rob Calabrese – 465,000
Nate Silver – Eliminated